INTERPOLATION WITH UNCERTAIN SPATIAL COVARIANCES MODELING TO PROBABILITY ESTIMATIONS OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES USING KRIGING METHOD IN THE EAST ANATOLIAN FAULT ZONE EASTERN TURKEY

In this study, Kriging method used to probability estimations of earthquake occurrences for different seismogenic sources zones in the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), Turkey. We used the instrumental and historical catalog for Ms magnitude. Kriging method depends on mathematical and statistical models. Kriging is an interpolator that can be exact or smoothed depending on the measurement error model. It is very flexible and allows to investigate graphs of spatial auto- and cross-correlation. Kriging uses statistical models that allow a variety of output surfaces including predictions, prediction standard errors, probability, and quantile. The flexibility of kriging can require a lot of decision-making. Kriging assumes the data come from a stationary stochastic process, and some methods assume normally-distributed data. We have used Z(s)=µ(s)+?(s) basis formula for all the different types of Kriging method. We determined two different approaches for probability estimates. Also, this method applied two significant declustering method for all earthquake dataset. Firstly, we selected Gaussian Kernel function, Gaussian Kernel approximation type, and Gaussian model type for covariance variable with 0,5 quantile and applied polygonal declustering method. Secondly, we selected Exponential Kernel function, Multiplicative Skewing approximation type for empirical base distribution, and Exponential model type for covariance variable 0,5 quantile and applied cell declustering method. As a result, interpolation with uncertain spatial covariances calculated probability estimates of earthquake occurrences for different source zones in EAFZ. Each zone determined high and low probability estimates from in the past earthquakes with Kriging method. This study can give a lead significant science humans for statistical estimates of earthquake occurrences of different regions in Turkey.