EVALUATING OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARD PARAMETERS (EHP) WITH BAYESIAN APPROACH METHOD IN SAKARYA AND SURROUNDING, TURKEY

In this study, the Bayesian Approach method used to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters (EHZ) (maximum regional magnitude (Mmax), ß value, and seismic activity rate or intensity (?) and their uncertainties) in Sakarya and surrounding. So, Sakarya divided into 3 different seismic source zones based on of tectonic, fault types, epicenter distribution etc. features. Respectively, this zones contained zone 1 (Arifiye and Karadere segments), zone 2 (Tepetarla and Dokurcun segments), zone 3 (Geyve fault). Also, zone 1 associated with the northern branch of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ), while zone 2 and 3 associated with the southern branch of the NAFZ. A compiled earthquake catalog that is homogenous with Ms ? 3.0 completed during the period from 1900 to 2017. The Mmax values determined as 6.85 in zone 1, 6.06 in zone 2, 5.77 in zone3. Low values found in the southern part of Sakarya, whereas high values observed in the northern part of Sakarya. The largest value computed in Arifiye and Dokurcun segments zone, comprising the other zones. The quantiles of functions of distributions determined for the true and apparent magnitude in future years. The quantiles of functions of distributions of the apparent and true magnitudes for next time intervals of 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 and 100 years calculated in all seismogenic source regions for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 95 and 98 %. According to the computed the EHP, Sakarya and surrounding estimated the highest earthquake magnitude (6,91) in the next 100 years with a 98 % probability level and it was the most dangerous zone compared to other zones. The results of this study can be used in earthquake hazard studies for Sakarya.